Project 2
Evaluating Victory and Defeat in Wars and Crises
A number of psychological factors predispose leaders, media, and the public to perceive outcomes as victories or defeats––often creating wide gaps between perceptions and reality. In "Failing to Win", we developed two frameworks in order to analyze the relative influence of facts and perceptions in any one case: "Scorekeeping," which focuses on actual material gains and losses; and "Match–fixing," where evaluations become skewed by mindsets, symbolic events, and media and elite spin. Our case studies, ranging from the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and the current War on Terror, suggested that much of what we accept about international politics and world history is not what it seems––and why, in a time when citizens offer or withdraw support based on an imagined view of the outcome rather than the result on the ground, perceptions of success or failure can shape the results of wars, the fate of leaders, and the "lessons" we draw from history.
Related Links
Bibliography
Biddle, S. (2004). Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Levy, J. S. (1994). "Learning and foreign policy: sweeping a conceptual minefield." International Organization 48(2)
Mandel, R. (2006). The Meaning of Military Victory. Boulder, Colo., Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Martel, W. C. (2006). Victory in War: Foundations of Modern Military Policy. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.